MEG update on potential harmonic pattern

Megaworld Corporation

MEG has hit today the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) of the Bullish Gartley harmonic pattern at 3.39 (3.37~3.42 range).

The relatively longer candlestick today with an above average volume may also signal an exhaustion of the current downtrend.

*Observe for a reversal patterns at the PRZ.
*There is still a possibility of the price action to fully test the PRZ area.
*If the downtrend continues beyond the PRZ, it will likely invalidate the Gartley harmonic pattern.

See previous analysis for reference that includes consensus and trading plan:
https://psetrends.blogspot.com/2017/03/meg-potential-bullish-harmonic-pattern.html

NOW on a technical rebound

NOW Corporation

NOW is again on a technical rebound after hitting the support line of its uptrend price channel. The trend reversal was signaled by a Bullish Harami candlestick pattern as it hits the support area.

*Observe the volume on every pullback as well as the volume when it hits the resistance line of the price channel. A significant deviation from this pattern will likely warn a new direction of future price action.

See previous analysis as it hits the support line of the price channel including appropriate trading plan:
https://psetrends.blogspot.com/2017/03/now-price-action-is-back-to-uptrend.html

See previous analysis for reference on the prior pullback.
https://psetrends.blogspot.com/2017/03/now-bearish-pattern.html

Trading Plan
- Range trade the price channel.
- Set appropriate stop-loss on every trade.

AGI on a range bound price action

Alliance Global Group, Inc.

AGI is consolidating in a range-bound price action with a historically strong support around 12.20 (the previous resistance and price congestion area during 2011 consolidation). Immediate resistance is around 13 where three previous short rallies were rejected.

*Gap to fill between 13.90~13.96.
*Major resistance area is around 13.90~14.00 (a potential level to take profit).

Trading Plan
- Range trade the consolidation (buy the support, sell or scale down near the resistance. Set stop-loss a few points below support, maintaining at least 1:2 risk/reward ratio.
- Also, a potential medium term position trade as downside risk is relatively minimal (still consider a stop-loss to manage risk).

TEL on a breakout

PLDT Inc.

TEL is on a breakout from a bullish Head-and-Shoulder Bottom pattern with a projected target price around 1930.

*Immediate resistance is near 1700 (1680~1700 area).

Previous breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern has already hit the target at 1618.

Trading Plan
- Buy near the breakout area.
- Set stop-loss on breakdown from 1386 for around 1:2 risk/reward ratio.
* Note that the pattern took months to complete so don't expect a short term reward. This is potentially a slow mover if the uptrend continues.

NOW price action is back to the uptrend support

NOW Corporation

For the 4th time, NOW's price is back to the support line of its uptrend price channel. If it continues to follow the historical price action around this area, there will be a probability of a technical rebound.

Previous analysis:
https://psetrends.blogspot.com/2017/03/now-bearish-pattern.html

Trading Plan
- Test buy near the uptrend support line.
- Cut-loss on uptrend price channel breakdown.

JFC is now at support zone

Jollibee Foods Corporation

JFC is now at major support zone at 175.50~184.60 range. The relatively longer candlestick body on the 4th day of consecutive down days (together with a huge volume), may potentially suggest an exhaustion bar due to panic selling.

*Monitor for reversal pattern at major support area.

JFC Consensus
Rating: Overweight
Target Price Forecast:
   - TP High = 260.00
   - TP Med = 229.50
   - TP Low = 173.00
   - Avg TP = 220.63

Trading Plan
- Buy the reversal pattern at support zone on confirmation (set stop-loss a few points below 175.50).
- For a high risk play, accumulate in tranches the dips in the major support area (or lower towards 170) for a position trade.

MPI bullish harmonic pattern update

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation

MPI continues to trade within the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) of a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern. A test of 5.92 level or the full range of the PRZ area followed by a reversal pattern would be a good entry signal.

*The PRZ area is also significant as it falls near the 10-month uptrend line of MPI.

For detailed analysis and potential trading plan, please see previous post:
https://psetrends.blogspot.com/2017/03/mpi-on-another-bullish-harmonic-pattern.html

MPI Consensus
Rating: Buy
Target Price Forecast:
   - TP High = 8.50
   - TP Med = 7.90
   - TP Low = 6.55
   - Avg TP = 7.79

Updated Chart

MEG potentially forming a bullish harmonic pattern

Megaworld Corporation

A Bullish Gartley harmonic pattern is potentially forming on MEG with PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) around 3.39 (3.37~3.42 range). The recent breakdown from its B leg (3.52) gives it higher probability of completing the harmonic pattern.

Consensus on MEG
Rating: Overweight
Target Price Forecast:
   - TP High = 5.80
   - TP Med = 4.61
   - TP Low = 3.7
   - Avg TP = 4.67

Trading Plan
- Only trade the harmonic pattern once it is completed with a reversal pattern confirmation around the PRZ area (will provide an update as it unfolds or invalidated).
- Set the stop-loss a few points below the recent swing low.

CHP Bullish Divergence pattern

Cemex Holdings Philippines, Inc.

CHP's recent price action is moving in a downward price channel and forming a Falling Wedge pattern, considered a bullish pattern on breakout. The Bullish Divergence pattern on some indicators also suggest an impending consolidation or trend reversal to potentially unfold.

There's also a Bullish Harami Cross candlestick pattern that formed up two trading days ago which is considered a significant bullish reversal pattern on confirmation. If another bullish candlestick pattern shows up to form a price congestion area, it will potentially mark the bottom of the current downtrend.

Trading Plan
- Buy the breakout from the Falling Wedge pattern (only consider this action on breakout confirmation).
- If more bullish reversal candlestick pattern shows up in a sideways price action, consider a test buy for a position trade.
- Always set a stop-loss in either of the trading setup to manage the downside risk (can be a few points from the recent swing low)

Fundamental vs Technical Analysis

by Investopedia

The methods used to analyze securities and make investment decisions fall into two very broad categories: fundamental and technical analysis. Learn the core differences in these strategies and how to use each analysis effectively.

Consensus of stocks under the PSEi index

Source: First Metro Securities
https://www.firstmetrosec.com.ph/

March 24, 2017

CROWN Sell-Off (potential action)

Crown Asia Chemicals Corporation

CROWN's breakdown from its 3-month  downtrend line has already hit the initial target around 1.95 (target zone is 1.89~1.95).

*Monitor for reversal patterns or bottoming out signals around the target zone.

Trading Plan
- A potential buy on reversal pattern around the target zone.

RLC at major support

Robinsons Land Corporation

RLC's downtrend price action brought its price at major support area and potentially forming a Falling Wedge pattern (Bullish).

The Bullish Divergence pattern on some indicators also suggest a weakening downtrend and the bottom may be near already (RSI and EFI indicators shown on the chart below).

*Major support around 22.80.

Trading Plan
- Buy the breakout from Falling Wedge pattern.
- For a high risk entry, do a position trade near the support area and set a tight stop-loss a few points below the major support (like a breakdown from 22.75).

MPI on another Bullish harmonic pattern

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation

MPI is potentially forming again a Bullish Bat Harmonic pattern and the recent price is now on the potential reversal zone or PRZ (5.87~6.15 range).

Trading Plan
- Monitor for reversal pattern within the PRZ.
- Buy the reversal pattern confirmation.
- For a high risk trade, buy the dips within the PRZ area and set stop-loss on breakdown from 5.76.

VITA Harmonic Patterns

Vitarich Corporation

VITA is potentially forming either a Bullish Cypher or Bullish Shark harmonic pattern. The breakdown from 1.7 (B leg on the chart) gives it a higher probability of completing the pattern.

*Major support around 1.28

Trading Plan
- Only initiate a trade on completion of appropriate harmonic pattern and a reversal confirmation after hitting the corresponding PRZ area (Potential Reversal Zone).

X - the trend is your friend

Xurpas Inc.

X is now on a rebound mode and trending up after recently bottoming out from a Double Bottom pattern supported by a Bullish Divergence pattern on several indicators.

The breakout from 9.00 also suggest a strong momentum making it the new support area.

Trading Plan
- Trade the trend using appropriate stop-loss to manage the risk.

DNA - Philab FOO (Follow-On Offering)

Philab Holdings Corp.

DNA plans to raise as much as P3.4 billion in a public offering (Follow-On Offering or FOO) after its backdoor listing.
https://www.facebook.com/PSEStocks/posts/996713230458971

In a disclosure to the Philippine Stock Exchange, the company that served as the backdoor listing vehicle of Philab Industries announced its intention to issue a maximum of 500 million common shares at a price between P3.25 and P6.75 per share.
http://edge.pse.com.ph/openDiscViewer.do?edge_no=c10d959858ac5ce43318251c9257320d#sthash.oRqllS2V.dpbs

DNA's price closed at P6.99 per share last Friday, a 3.56% ~ 115% premium from the indicative offer price range.

Trading Plan
- Expect a deep discount of the final offer price.
- Buy only if you can get it near the lower end of the indicative offer price.

NOW bearish pattern

NOW Corporation

An Evening Star candlestick pattern formed up on NOW after hitting the resistance line of its Upward Price Channel. This bearish candlestick pattern is a potential sign that prior uptrend is about to reverse.

*Price may potentially go back towards the support line of the Uptrend Price Channel.

Trading Plan
- Scale down or Sell position
- Avoid for now

LMG breakdown

LMG Chemicals Corporation

LMG breakdown was bound to happen after the distribution activity. Prior warning pattern became more significant after it was followed by a few reversal patterns and its failure to create new highs.

*Its now back to the previous breakout point.

Previous analysis:
https://www.facebook.com/PSETrends/photos/a.1312337302188343.1073741833.765291220226290/1312337535521653/?type=3&theater

IDC breakout continuation

Italpinas Development Corporation

IDC is on a breakout continuation from the recent Downward Price Channel breakout. Initial target at 4.18 was already hit.

*Next target on sustained breakout will be around 4.40 ~ 4.70 area.
*Immediate support is around 3.77, near its recent 61.8% retrecement.

See previous analysis for reference on trading plan:
https://psetrends.blogspot.com/2017/03/idc-on-potential-breakout.html

SM sell-off (action plan)

SM Investments Corporation

Last Friday's sell-off on SM puts its price at the immediate support area around 600 (588~603).

The unusual price action was likely the result of a rebalancing activity by both local and foreign funds prior to the effective date of PSEi recomposition this coming Monday, March 13, 2017. PSEi recomposition memo:
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/memos/2017/CN_2017-0008.pdf

With SM as the largest company in the PSEi by weight and free float market capitalization, any shares flooding the market at the pre-close bidding will understandably pull down the price to accommodate the seller's volume appetite.

Trading Plan
- Buy this dip.
- Set a wider stop-loss other than immediate support breakdown (take higher risk).

CHP potentially bottomed out already

Cemex Holdings Philippines, Inc.

CHP has potentially bottomed out already after a clearer Bullish Divergence pattern on several indicators has been established. The recent sharp sell-off was halted after hitting its 200% retracement from its short term rebound (9.05 to 9.89). A further confirmation of a bottoming pattern is the Bullish Harami candlestick pattern with potential confirmation today.

*Bullish Divergence pattern on indicators like CCI, RSI, EFI, MACD Histogram and a few others.

*Immediate resistance is the previous support prior to 2nd breakdown at 9.05.

*Immediate support around the 200% retracement.

Previous analysis:

https://psetrends.blogspot.com/2017/03/chp-potential-for-bullish-divergence.html

Trading Plan

- Test buy

- Set the stop-loss just a bit below the recent low at 8.12 (or on breakdown from 8)

- Immediate TP at 9.05. Profit run on strong momentum towards 10.75.

Portfolio Tracker

Update on COLing the Shots portfolio tracking...
https://psetrends.blogspot.com/p/portfolio-tracker.html

IDC on a potential breakout

Italpinas Development Corporation

IDC is on a potential breakout from a bullish Downward Price Channel.

*Initial projected target from this breakout is around 4.18.
*Next target on sustained breakout will be around 4.40 ~ 4.70 area.
*Immediate support area around the 78.6% retracement.

Trading Plan
- Buy near the breakout area.
- Set stop-loss on breakdown from the price channel's support line.

CHP potential for Bullish Divergence pattern

Cemex Holdings Philippines, Inc.

CHP has halted its 7th day sell-off after hitting its 200% retracement from its recent short term rebound (9.05 to 9.89).

*Potential Bullish Divergence pattern may be developing from several indicators.
*200% retracement may act as immediate support area.

Trading Plan
- Buy on reversal pattern after confirming a bullish divergence signal.
- Set a tight stop-loss on any test buy trade.

TUGS rebound from support

Harbor Star Shipping Services, Inc.

TUGS on a rebound from its immediate support area around 3.16 ~ 3.24.
- Immediate trend along the recent uptrend price channel has been broken already.
- With the recent rebound from MA50 around the support area, monitor for a new trend to develop.

*Still be cautious of pullback (back to recent breakdown area) followed by breakdown continuation..

Trading Plan
- Can initiate a new trend trading position using MA50 as trend following indicator.
- Stop-loss/Trailing-stop on a few points breakdown from MA50

TUGS on immediate trend breakdown

Harbor Star Shipping Services, Inc.

TUGS is on a breakdown from the following patterns:
- Breakdown from a Head-and-Shoulder Top pattern (projected TP is near 3.00)
- Breakdown from the Uptrend Price Channel (projected TP is near 2.75)

*Immediate support area is around 3.16 ~ 3.24.

Trading Plan

- Avoid for now until new trend develops or consolidation area has been established.